international agencies agree that this shape in the world food crisis for the poorest people, by the rising prices of grains and staple foods. Perhaps the most notorious case has been the apparent scarcity of rice, which has even led to disorders and demonstrations in some countries like Haiti and Egypt. The UN estimates that the price increase, which was 83% in the last 3 years, seriously affecting millions of people in poorer countries. The result can be dramatic if, before the UN and the rich countries take measures and actions to prevent it.
This increase of basic food prices is taking place by a combination of both cyclical and structural factors. Climate is the most important temporary factor and expressed mainly in grain crops in Australia, which has made a big impact on prices during the last few months. There is also a cyclical effect the ban on the export of crops in food-producing countries like Brazil and others, saying food security for their people. Perhaps
structural factors are more important determinants in the medium and long term prices remain high and it is these that will change the conditions under which it has developed agriculture in recent decades. These structural factors are: growth of world population, increasing consumption capacity of the middle class in some developing countries like China, India and Russia and high oil prices encouraged the use of ethanol and bio-diesel as an alternative to petroleum fuels.
In China for example, was exported in 2006-2007, 5.3 million metric tons of corn to the world and is estimated for 2007-2008 will be only 0.5 million metric tons. This is due to use of corn for animal feed and meat consumption has risen considerably, from 20 kg per year in 1980 to 50 kg per capita today.
There is no doubt that the rise in basic food prices will hurt millions of poor people worldwide who live in low economic development. But this phenomenon is also going to change the terms of trade for the world economy, to the extent that food and raw materials from agriculture, to achieve better prices and earn higher relative value compared to industrial goods and services. With this perspective, agriculture ceased to be the "ugly duckling" of the economic sectors.
who has lived and followed closely the task of the agricultural sector know that agriculture sector has been the underdog in terms of trade in the global market. In fact, to sustain this activity in industrialized countries, as in the case of the European Economic Community, Japan and the U.S., farmers receive huge subsidies from the state, and a strong tariff protection. This is so obvious that the World Trade Organization WTO has been unable to reach agreement on this issue. The Doha round began in 2001 and that it should have found, is suspended, precisely because of the refusal of some heavily agricultural countries like Brazil and India, to accept free trade for goods industrial and services if developed countries refuse to reduce or eliminate agricultural subsidies.
is interesting to see the potential for the world to produce more food and fuel simultaneously generating plant. There are countries where the agricultural frontier is exhausted and greater production will have to do with new and better production technologies. U.S. for example is on the limit and there is concern that the pressure to bring new land to agriculture, reduce the protected forest reserves are maintained with state subsidies. Also there is apprehension that Brazil continues deforested the Amazon with serious consequences for all humanity. In the case of Europe and Japan also do not have arable land unused.
But on the other hand there are large tracts of land in many underdeveloped countries, where the scarcity of resources, low crop prices and the lack of state subsidies, has never established a modern and efficient agriculture. In these countries, which likely will move to concentrate resources to produce food, either for local consumption or for export and develop crops which produce ethanol and bio-fuels.
There are countries with enormous potential to extend the agricultural frontier in the third world countries and countries in the process of development. Also there is great potential for efficient and profitable return the lands that are currently in operation, with technology and better farming practices. For example in China and India there are over three million square kilometers of arable land and Russia have more than one million. In Africa, there is a large rural population and agriculture is still the largest sector of its economy. Faced with this crisis, the World Bank announced it will double its aid to support agriculture in Africa to $ 800 million annually. In Latin America, although in recent decades has become industrialized, there is a large rural population in need of new opportunities for their land and better prices for their crops. Unfortunately
high food prices will bring famine and death in many poor countries in the short term, but in the medium term it is likely that the improvement in prices and the highest relative value of farm products, will bring welfare and development in many rural communities in the world and especially those of less developed countries. Jorge Pineda
Miami, FL 05/06/1908
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