In 1798 the British economist Thomas Robert Malthus stated in one of his books a theory stating that the population grows geometrically and food production of goods and only may increase in an arithmetical ratio. That theory is called the Law of Malthus.
population to grow much more quickly than man's ability to produce their food would inevitably lead to poverty and starvation of the entire population, a situation that did not happen. This prediction of Malthus did not happen by the industrial revolution that affects all sectors of production and improvements through the ages 18 and 19 were in the techniques for agricultural development. Process that culminated with the green revolution of the mid-nineteenth century that dramatically increased food production through the mechanization of agriculture and the massive use of agrochemicals and fertilizers.
Reading the 2007 annual report of the International Energy Agency (IEA) is inevitable to think that we are faced with developing a similar theory, where it is demonstrate that the high increase in energy consumption by the large growth in demand from countries like China and India, besides an increase in consumption in developed countries would lead to an energy crisis by 2015 with unpredictable consequences , if developed countries do not take urgent measures to reduce demand. It is said to begin to reduce fossil fuel sources and alternative systems of energy generation are not developed enough to compensate the oil shortage and meet the growing demand.
Are we then face a global energy crisis? One
positive effects of increased oil prices over $ 100 per barrel, which became profitable energy production using other sources and methods. It also triggered the research in this area by the oil companies, universities, governments, specialized institutions, investors, etc.
It is only some examples to understand the change that is happening in the world. The alternative of ethanol from renewable plant material and Brazil is a great example of that. Wind energy production and for them there are large windmill parks in USA and Europe. Solar energy is being used in small-scale water heaters water in homes and apartment buildings in many parts of the world and in large scale through panels located in areas of high sun exposure in California in the Mojave Desert, where they are making huge investments in solar energy panels. There are ambitious plans in the U.S. to develop geothermal energy by taking advantage of high ground temperatures. In Florida you are thinking of an underwater turbine plant to channel the energy derived from waves and there are many other examples of what is being done around the world in this regard.
addition, previous initiatives, the use of atomic energy is going to take off as clean, safe alternative. On the other hand there is a huge potential in the bituminous sands (tar sands) in Canada and Venezuela, making oil, thus increasing tremendously useful reserves of fossil fuels. Also in Northwest Colorado in the U.S. there are mountains of sedimentary rock containing solid bituminous (oil shale) and from which oil can be extracted, according to research that for years has been doing the Shell there. In these rocks there are in other U.S. locations and the world.
On the other hand we see as the high cost of energy for the final consumer and the great ecological awareness is invading the developed world has meant that governments, companies and individuals looking for how to spend less energy and make more efficient use of it. An example is recent legislation in U.S. Congress that requires automakers to develop technologies to achieve a minimum efficiency in fuel consumption of 35 miles per gallon or 30% more efficient than the minimum required consumption today. Another example is the widespread use of fluorescent bulbs consume much less than ordinary bulbs. In the same way we see the trend in the construction of buildings and houses that respond to designs that make efficient use of energy.
In general the concepts of saving energy and protecting the environment are being undertaken by communities in most countries of the world and especially young people, who see that the planet is threatened by global warming and the deterioration of nature.
All these phenomena are occurring simultaneously and in parallel suggests that alternative energy development and conservation of traditional use, will be exponentially higher and this would lead to abortion in a few years the event of a widespread energy crisis, offsetting the demand for energy that carries the rapid growth of China and India.
Jorge Pineda
Miami, 2/29/08
