Failed mediation of President Chavez of Venezuela in the release of those kidnapped by the FARC in Colombia, the obvious question is, what now?
But maybe first we should ask who really cares and is interested should a humanitarian agreement and the release of the hostages, as well as natural family and civil society.
President Uribe has many achievements to show. In public security, strengthening democracy, on economic, foreign investment, employment, rural development, education, etc. perhaps the greatest mole has been its inability to free the hostages, some of them carrying up to 10 years in captivity and political attrition that comes with living the human drama of family members who have international solidarity and good of the country, well as the media trying to indicate to the Chair as the culprit that the agreement is of non-humanitarian. This issue is perhaps the most difficult for the President and the one you can damage the image nationally and internationally. There is no doubt that a hostage release would be of great benefit to the image of President Uribe.
On the side of the FARC is not clear that a humanitarian agreement will bring benefits. On the contrary, this can put them in a situation even more precarious than they do today. It is clear that the FARC has lost militarily and politically. Militarily are rounded up and lost their ability to penetrate and achieve progress in the war waged against Colombian society. In the political field are discredited before the Colombian public opinion and are classified as international terrorists. The "spoils" of the hostages is essential for them to remain at the front pages of newspapers, have the option of having their struggle to be known and disseminated worldwide, and while they are in power will continue to be interest by foreign governments organizations and human rights defenders and NGOs. It is clear that the hostages are their greatest asset and if they deliver or lose are unprotected and highly vulnerable.
So for the FARC is not appropriate to the humanitarian agreement. I would just like initiating a peace process and when really willing to lay down arms. And there seem to be inclined to do for this government. The attempts at negotiations that the Uribe government is tried so far, the FARC has used to open and save time waiting for the government of Uribe finished and hope to negotiate in the future with a government more inclined to give large political concessions their demobilization. If the FARC
enter a humanitarian agreement without a peace process, will have more pressure from the army, will lose most vulnerable and relevant national and international policy and pass to resemble more the ELN guerrilla or a dissolution process .
Es muy probable que en el futuro inmediato no habrá nuevos intentos de acuerdo humanitario con ayuda internacional, pues el mas interesado que seria el Presidente Uribe debió haber quedado muy afectado con el fracaso de la intermediación de Chávez y del deterioro que por este motivo sufrieron las relaciones con Venezuela.
Jorge Pineda
Miami
Noviembre 27/2007
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