Much of the political analysts and journalists, as well as some scholars believe that poverty and inequality in a country is the main cause of violence guerrilla or civil wars. However
can give many examples of countries where poverty and extreme inequalities protruding in broad sectors of the population who do not have widespread violence and government schemes are not fought by weapons or guerrilla insurgencies. It may be mentioned countries from different continents and cultures, with per capita incomes lower than Colombia, such as Albania, Cuba, Egypt, India, Jamaica, North Korea, just to name a few, and South America as in the case of Ecuador or of Bolivia and Paraguay, countries with low per-capita income and high inequality, where although excite violent conflicts and social problems, none insurgent armies are organized, challenging the status of the established government.
We Colombians have asked this question many times. Why in our country, guerrilla violence is so settled and should be done to banish?
Recently, thanks to a conference sponsored by the Colombian American Chamber of Commerce in Miami, I had the opportunity to attend a presentation by former Colombian Senator Rodrigo Rivera made on the subject and which gave interesting and new light on the causes and possible Colombian armed conflict solutions. The core of her dissertation was based on the model "Collier-Hoeffer Model of Civil War Onset" developed by researchers Paul Collin and Anke Hoeffer it established after study of 78 armed conflicts or civil wars between 1960 and 1999 in different parts of the world. Model that is used by academics and researchers in these subjects.
The Collier-Hoeffer model found a significant correlation of the factors that give the opportunity at the beginning of the conflict and facilitate the same, that the discontent of the population. Without denying that poverty is the breeding ground for rebellion, the model gives more emphasis to factors such as the ambition of the rebels, the rich natural resources and especially those that facilitate export financing war, weak military structures the absence of government in remote areas of difficult access, conditions of low or no economic growth in the country concerned and the existence of armed conflict that preceded this that did not end successfully, leaving arms and trained men for war easy recruitment.
Rivera Senator analysis shows how these factors have occurred in Colombia's conflict through the years and points as during the administration of President Uribe is starting to change, and concluded that overall democratic security policy has concrete results and this excellent track.
What we lack and it is even vital importance that is achieved, said Sen. Rivera, is that democratic security policy or something like it, become a state policy and do not respond to a strategy of government. Achieving this would be very important to end the guerrilla struggle in Colombia and this requires a great national consensus of all political parties and civil society.
hope the Colombian political class to follow the example of Senator Rivera and analyze in depth the causes and solutions of this conflict and seek a state policy according to its causes, allowing the Colombians envision a better future, without violence and unrest where it can create conditions for development that will reduce levels of poverty that afflict us. Jorge Pineda
Miami, FL 4/23/08
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